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2015 Bordeaux Futures: Worth Buying?
Posted by Commentary | Posted on 07-14-2016
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From Wikimedia.
The excitement over the 2015 Bordeaux vintage is palpable. Early indications suggest that it is the best vintage since the superlative duo of 2009 and 2010. However, the quality of the 2015 vintage likely is not as high or as uniform as these prior years. The communes of Margaux, Pessac-Leognan and Pomerol appear to be the stars with the northern Medoc being of more variable quality due to late arriving rains.
The absence of a quality vintage for almost a half-decade has led to high expectations for the 2015 futures campaign. However, the stratospheric release price and subsequent poor investment performance associated with the 2009, 2010 and 2011 vintages have caused many to view the Bordeaux futures system with skepticism. Therefore, before we get too seduced by the hype surrounding this new vintage, we should consider whether the current price of these wines make them a compelling value proposition at this juncture.
When analyzing any futures offering for a specific wine, I ask the following three questions:
- Is this a wine worth purchasing based on my prior experience with previous vintages and/or its initial description and critical rating? Basically, is this a wine I really want to own?
- Is this a wine that is made in such limited quantities that I would need to purchase it via futures to obtain an allocation? Think Le Pin, Ausone, Lafleur, Hosanna, etc.
- What is the relative value of this wine compared to the most recent similar quality in-bottle vintage? Put another way, is the current futures price of the wine at least 20% below the lowest current retail price of the most recent similar quality in-bottle vintage? As an aside, I use 20% as a threshold because I feel that it is the minimum discount needed to justify the time-value of money and counterparty default risks associated with buying a wine two years before it is delivered. For example, if I can earn at least 5% per year by investing in stocks and bonds and I want at least a 10% discount to cover the risk that the merchant may not actually deliver the wine when promised, my minimum discount is 20%. I also feel that this discount is sufficient to justify purchasing a wine that has not yet received a final in-bottle rating.
If I can answer question #1 and either question #2 or #3 in the affirmative, I will consider purchasing the wine via futures. However, as you may have guessed, the most important questions is #3. Why? Because it is the only question that deals with monetary value and risk. Moreover, it is the only criteria that can be used as a litmus test to determine the relative value of a specific futures offering for an entire vintage, not just a specific wine.
Now that you understand how I generally analyze a futures offering, let’s look at the 2015 futures campaign to see if it passes muster.
In applying my relative value test (i.e., question #3), I chose to examine a broad cross-section of wines from all of the major Bordeaux regions. This group includes both classified and non-classified wines. I also elected to use the 2012 vintage as the most recent comparative in-bottle vintage. I chose this vintage over 2009 or 2010 because I feel that, although 2015 is definitely a superior vintage to 2012, the variable quality of the 2015 vintage makes it more closely aligned with that of 2012. In fact, if you look at the wine scores in the chart below you will see that for many wines their 2012 and 2015 scores are fairly similar. Moreover, the older age, significantly better quality and high initial release price of the 2009 and 2010 vintages make them a poor relative value benchmark.
2015 Bordeaux Futures: Relative Valuation Chart
Wine | 2015 Futures Score |
2012 Bottle Score |
2015 Futures Price |
2012 Current Price | Percentage Difference |
St. Estephe | |||||
Montrose | 93-95 | 92+ | $135.00 | $85.00 | 59% |
Cos d’Estournel | 92-94 | 93+ | $159.00 | $124.00 | 28% |
Phelan Segur | 91-93 | 87 | $40.00 | $38.00 | 5% |
Lafon-Rochet | 90-92 | 86 | $38.00 | $43.00 | -12% |
Capbern (Gasqueton) | 88-90 | 86 | $19.99 | $22.00 | -9% |
Pauillac | |||||
Mouton-Rothschild | 97-99 | 94 | $515.00 | $390.00 | 32% |
Pichon Baron | 96-98 | 93 | $125.00 | $93.00 | 34% |
Lafite-Rothschild | 94-96 | 91 | $570.00 | $489.00 | 17% |
Pontet-Canet | 94-96 | 93 | $100.00 | $80.00 | 25% |
Grand-Puy-Lacoste | 94-96 | 91 | $65.00 | $49.00 | 33% |
Lynch-Bages | 93-95 | 87 | $115.00 | $99.00 | 16% |
Batailley | 93-95 | 92 | $42.00 | $53.00 | -21% |
Lynch-Moussas | 92-94 | 89 | $37.00 | $36.00 | 3% |
Haut-Batailley | 92-94 | 92 | $40.00 | $38.00 | 5% |
Pedesclaux | 90-92 | 89 | $40.00 | $40.00 | 0% |
Pibran | 89-91 | 88 | $32.00 | $30.00 | 7% |
St. Julien | |||||
Leoville-Las-Cases | 95-97 | 93+ | $185.00 | $125.00 | 48% |
Ducru Beaucaillou | 94-96 | 90-92 | $160.00 | $100.00 | 60% |
Beychevelle | 92-94 | 92+ | $67.00 | $72.00 | -7% |
Leoville-Poyferre | 92-94 | 92+ | $75.00 | $68.00 | 10% |
Lagrange | 90-92 | 86 | $41.00 | $40.00 | 3% |
Margaux | |||||
Chateau Margaux | 98-100 | 95 | $519.00 | $395.00 | 31% |
Rauzan-Segla | 96-98 | 94+ | $70.00 | $58.00 | 21% |
Giscours | 94-96 | 90 | $50.00 | $44.00 | 14% |
D’Issan | 93-95 | 95 | $56.00 | $48.00 | 17% |
Malescot St. Exupery | 93-95 | 93 | $47.00 | $43.00 | 9% |
Brane Cantenac | 93-95 | 91 | $62.00 | $50.00 | 24% |
Cantenac Brown | 92-94 | 88+ | $47.00 | $45.00 | 4% |
Siran | 92-94 | 87 | $26.00 | $25.00 | 4% |
Dauzac | 91-93 | 87+ | $40.00 | $55.00 | -27% |
Alter Ego de Palmer | 90-92 | 93 | $61.25 | $69.99 | -12% |
Pessac-Leognan & Graves | |||||
Haut-Brion | 98-100 | 98 | $515.00 | $395.00 | 30% |
La Mission Haut-Brion | 97-99 | 97 | $399.00 | $195.00 | 105% |
Haut-Bailly | 95-97 | 96 | $93.00 | $72.00 | 29% |
Pape Clement | 95-97 | 97 | $77.00 | $80.00 | -4% |
Malartic Lagraviere | 94-96 | 94 | $47.00 | $39.00 | 21% |
Les Carmes Haut-Brion | 92-94 | 94 | $63.00 | $50.00 | 26% |
Latour Martillac | 92-94 | 90 | $33.00 | $29.00 | 14% |
Larrivet Haut-Brion | 92-94 | 89-91 | $32.00 | $36.00 | -11% |
De Fieuzal | 92-94 | 89+ | $34.00 | $37.00 | -8% |
Domaine Chevalier (Blanc) | 92-94 | 93+ | $90.00 | $85.00 | 6% |
Chateau Olivier (Rouge) | 91-92 | 88 | $30.00 | $35.00 | -14% |
de Chantegrive (Rouge) | NR | 89 | $14.99 | $18.00 | -17% |
Haut-Medoc & Medoc | |||||
Cantemerle | 90-92 | 88 | $29.00 | $30.00 | -3% |
Lanessan | 90-92 | 86 | $14.99 | $25.00 | -40% |
Senjac | 89-91 | 86 | $16.00 | $24.00 | -33% |
Listrac & Moulis | |||||
Fourcas-Dupre | 91-93 | 85 | $22.00 | $27.00 | -19% |
Poujeaux | 90-92 | 89 | $29.00 | $30.00 | -3% |
Pomerol | |||||
Vieux-Chateau-Certan | 98-100 | 92-94 | $230.00 | $140.00 | 64% |
Lafleur | 97-99 | 94+ | $750.00 | $475.00 | 58% |
L’Evangile | 96-98 | 94 | $209.00 | $145.00 | 44% |
L’Eglise-Clinet | 96-98 | 96 | $250.00 | $240.00 | 4% |
Hosanna | 95-97 | 97 | $139.00 | $170.00 | -18% |
La Conseillante | 95-97 | 96 | $153.00 | $120.00 | 28% |
Clinet | 95-97 | 95 | $80.00 | $85.00 | -6% |
Gazin | 94-96 | 95 | $63.00 | $67.00 | -6% |
Le Gay | 94-96 | 94+ | $100.00 | $76.00 | 32% |
La Fleur Petrus | 94-96 | 95 | $169.00 | $144.00 | 17% |
Trotanoy | 94-96 | 96 | $205.00 | $208.00 | -1% |
Latour a Pomerol | 93-95 | 93+ | $99.00 | $80.00 | 24% |
Feytit Clinet | 93-95 | 93+ | $70.00 | $65.00 | 8% |
Clos de Clocher | 92-94 | 92 | $47.00 | $48.00 | -2% |
La Cabanne | 92-94 | NR | $33.00 | $30.00 | 10% |
Rouget | 92-94 | 92 | $44.00 | $45.00 | -2% |
La Violette | 92-94 | 97 | $280.00 | $216.00 | 30% |
Neinin | 92-94 | 91-93 | $60.00 | $46.00 | 30% |
Enclos Tourmaline | 91-93 | 89 | $149.00 | $130.00 | 15% |
Les Pensees de Lafleur | 91-93 | 87-89 | $139.00 | $150.00 | -7% |
St. Emilon | |||||
Canon | 98-100 | 92+ | $90.00 | $63.00 | 43% |
Figeac | 97-99 | 91+ | $139.00 | $80.00 | 74% |
Tetre Roteboeuf | 97-99 | NR | $159.00 | $179.00 | -11% |
Cheval Blanc | 97-99 | 94 | $659.00 | $469.00 | 41% |
Pavie | 96-98 | 95 | $325.00 | $280.00 | 16% |
Angelus | 95-97 | 95 | $325.00 | $249.00 | 31% |
Belair-Monange | 95-97 | 95+ | $155.00 | $100.00 | 55% |
Clos Fourtet | 95-97 | 95 | $95.00 | $80.00 | 19% |
Valandraud | 95-97 | 95+ | $140.00 | $115.00 | 22% |
Le Dome | 94-96 | 93 | $119.00 | $100.00 | 19% |
Larcis-Ducasse | 94-96 | 95 | $65.00 | $56.00 | 16% |
Bellevue | 93-95 | 90+ | $45.00 | $55.00 | -18% |
Pavie-Decesse | 93-95 | 95+ | $125.00 | $160.00 | -22% |
Troplong Mondot | 92-94 | 96 | $117.00 | $80.00 | 46% |
Barde-Haut | 92-94 | 90 | $34.00 | $27.00 | 26% |
La Gaffeliere | 92-94 | 91+ | $60.00 | $74.00 | -19% |
Grand Mayne | 92-94 | 89+ | $37.00 | $37.00 | 0% |
Quintus | 92-94 | 89 | $129.00 | $90.00 | 43% |
Cote de Baleau | 92-94 | 89+ | $22.00 | $23.00 | -4% |
Pavie-Macquin | 91-93 | 93+ | $72.00 | $59.00 | 22% |
La Dominique | 90-92 | 93 | $50.00 | $36.00 | 39% |
Virginie de Valandruad | 90-92 | 87 | $36.00 | $45.00 | -20% |
Right Bank Satellites | |||||
Cap de Faugeres | 92-94 | 87 | $13.00 | $18.00 | -28% |
Les Cruzelles | 91-93 | 90 | $26.00 | $25.00 | 4% |
La Chenade | 91-93 | NR | $18.00 | $25.00 | -28% |
Joanin Becot | 90-92 | 90 | $21.00 | $22.00 | -5% |
Roc de Cambes | 90-92 | NR | $50.00 | $50.00 | 0% |
d’Aiguilhe | 90-92 | NR | $22.42 | $24.00 | -7% |
Average Premium/ Discount vs. 2012 | 12% |
*All wine scores are from The Wine Advocate. NR means Not Rated.
**All prices represent the lowest per bottle price listed by a reputable wine merchant on Wine-Searcher.com.
As the above chart shows, the average price per bottle for the 2015 futures vintage represents a 12% premium to that of the average current price for the 2012 in-bottle vintage. This price premium suggests that the 2015 futures campaign is generally over-priced.
Actually, this analysis is a bit simplistic in that not all of the wines offered in the 2015 futures campaign represent a poor value. Rather, several wines are priced at a significant discount to their 2012 counterparts. However, most of these wines are conservatively priced because they were released early in the futures campaign. See Pape Clement, Gazin, Hosanna, Batailly, Dauzac, Bellevue and La Gaffaliere. As the campaign proceeded, and it became clear that the first wines were well received, the trend was for each successive new release to come out at a higher price. The end result being that, as a whole, the 2015 futures campaign is not one to get excited about – at least from a comparative value standpoint. For my money, I would rather cherry pick a few of the highly rated and fairly priced 2012s and look to buy a select few of the best 2014s when they are released in-bottle this fall. If, however, you want an allocation of the 2015s, I would wait until they are released in-bottle since the majority of these wines likely will be selling at or close to their current futures price.
Mark E. Ricardo is a contributing writer for the Terroirst Wine Blog, the author of Simply Burgundy: “A Practical Guide to Understanding the Wines of Burgundy” and the founder of Trellis Fine Wine Investments, LLC, a boutique fine wine advisory firm. He also is the former wine and food columnist for the Washington Theater Review and an avid collector of fine wine. In addition to his wine related endeavors, Mark is a practicing attorney.